Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States has sparked mixed reactions globally, raising questions about its implications for Africa. While Heads of State across the continent have sent congratulatory messages and shown a willingness to engage with Trump’s administration, there is an unspoken deep sense of anxiety about his “America First” protectionist policies and their potential impact on Africa.
Diplomatic and Economic Relations: Trump’s re-election saw some African leaders signalling renewed diplomatic relations and economic cooperation, with President Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe, hoping for a “diplomatic reset” underscoring a call to strengthen ties with the U.S. Trump’s first tenure was marked by soured diplomatic relations between the U.S. and African countries over cuts to foreign aid and controversial remarks about African nations. However, he introduced other initiatives like Prosper Africa (increasing U.S. investment in Africa) and permitted the continuation of the Development Finance Corporation (supporting economic growth in developing countries) which were aimed at strengthening ties between the U.S. and African countries.
Trade Policies and Economic Impact: Trump’s plan to impose trade tariffs and potentially not renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025 has reignited concerns across Africa, especially for countries like South Africa that benefit significantly from this arrangement. However, Trump’s protectionist stance could inadvertently bolster intra-Africa trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The imposition of U.S. trade tariffs might reduce Africa’s imports to the U.S., thereby encouraging more trade between African nations. The African share of global trade remains below 3%, but intra-Africa trade is expected to grow from just under $190 billion in 2023 to approximately $195 billion by 2026 (AfreximBank: African Trade and Economic Outlook 2024)
U.S. and Africa Economic Initiatives: Under Biden’s administration, the U.S. sought to strengthen relations with African countries through strategic economic initiatives, such as the Lobito Corridor—a railway project connecting Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia. However, these efforts did not translate into significant policy shifts or new trade agreements with Africa. Trump’s re-election might lead to a rollback of these initiatives, potentially weakening Afro-American diplomatic and economic cooperation.
Foreign Aid and Security: Africa could see reductions in foreign aid, impacting health, peace, and security initiatives. To mitigate this, African nations must reduce reliance on foreign aid by enhancing regional cooperation and boosting intra-Africa trade. During his first term, Trump provided military support to Nigeria in its fight against Boko Haram. His administration might continue to influence security efforts in other parts of Africa, particularly within ECOWAS.
Diplomatic Tensions Over Israel: South Africa’s move to take Israel to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over human rights violations could deepen the chasm in foreign policy approaches between South Africa and a Trump-led U.S., which traditionally supports Israel. This divergence may cause diplomatic tensions and have economic repercussions, potentially prompting the U.S. to reconsider South Africa’s status under trade agreements like AGOA. Such developments might compel South Africa to increase trade with counterparts on the continent and strengthen its relations with BRICS member states.
The potential implications of Trump’s second term for Africa are complex. While there is considerable anxiety about his presidency in terms of trade, aid, and security, it could also drive African leaders to enhance intra-continental trade and cooperation, helping to shape the future that Africa envisions for itself.
Dominic Khumalo (Afro-Futurist)
